How soon we forget. The snow is gone and many folks are saying spring isn’t far off. Don't say winter is over just yet, though, it's only taking a break while the Arctic recharges.
We are getting nearer to spring and we will have to watch out for the threat for severe storms while we are in this mild period. But so far, nothing is showing any indications of that. We are in what has been called the January Thaw. It occurs almost every year in this part of the country, usually around mid-January. But I wouldn’t call it warm weather especially since a cold front passed through. Temperatures are forecast to merely dip to within a
few degrees of average for a couple of days. However, it will feel significantly colder over the area due to the gusty winds we have been seeing so far.
The new chilly push will have much less bite, since the snow cover has been erased. Another warm up is expected to end this week with temperatures back in the lower 50’s. However, the warmup in the region is likely to be accompanied by more rain as another cold front arrives going into this last weekend of January. Another cycle of back-and-forth cold and warm conditions is likely to follow during the last couple of days of January and the first couple of days of February. 
Overall, temperature swings will be less dramatic than what we saw over the last couple of weeks. Most days across the southern third of the nation near- to above-average temperatures can be expected.
But…I have said all along that we may not be done with lasting, harsh cold. Winter will not give up that easy. Already there are signs starting to show up that indicate we may actually have our worst winter weather ahead. There a couple of unusual things about this winter that makes this one a little more difficult to figure out. This winter, most of our cold has come from the Polar Vortex where pieces of it broke off from the main body and drove southward into the eastern U.S. The cold arrived and stayed around due to the strength of the Polar Vortex and without the presence of blocking which is what usually causes our cold to arrive and stay around. I know this is a little complicated to understand. There are 
signs that the first major discharge of arctic air may develop in less than two weeks.
An important reversal is forecast over the next two weeks in the Gulf of Alaska from a trough to a ridging pattern. This should lead to a pattern that is currently favorable to warm temperatures in the Eastern US to one that is favorable to cold temperatures in the Eastern US beginning in early February. And that will be just the beginning. Remember I said earlier that we have basically only gotten a glancing blow from the Polar Vortex so far. Most of you know the Polar Vortex 
contains the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere. While the first wave of cold to arrive will be quite cold, a more significant Polar Vortex disruption is possible, and the most likely period of a significant outbreak of the Polar Vortex is the second week of February.
This will be some serious cold to arrive and possibly be the coldest so far this winter. Storms with snow may precede and accompany this next major wave of cold air. The details as to exactly how extensive and lasting the cold air becomes and the track of the storms is not known this far out. My confidence level in the way this plays out is fairly good. Of course this is weather and things can change. But, I think it is a good possibility that we will all be sharing snow cream recipes once again before we are through with this winter. So enjoy the milder temperatures while you can. Winter is coming back. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.
